Aggregate Drift Service · Triodian

The service

Every decision can be compliant while the whole quietly drifts. This is the service that governs the aggregate.

A deployed, subscription-operated governance layer over an AI decision stream, measuring the window, not the item, and leaving a record a board or regulator can check.

Request the sample drift report What you configure ↓ How this fits your governance operating model →

The check you already run

Your per-output checks are correct. They are also the reason the drift is invisible.

Every decision in the stream is tested against limits, and passes. That check is doing its job exactly right, each item is within mandate when it clears. But a control that asks "is this one decision within limits?" cannot ask "is the whole, over this window, drifting somewhere no one chose?" The failure isn't a broken check. It's a question the per-output check was never shaped to ask.

Why the aggregate breaks

A stream can pass every check and still be wrong.

A per-output control asks one question of one output: is this decision within limits? Run it across a stream and every answer can come back “yes” while the set as a whole slides toward concentration, correlation, or a margin so thin a single shock moves all of it at once. You cannot reach aggregate risk by tightening a per-output threshold, the danger lives in the relationship between decisions, not in any one of them.

AggregateDriftService diagram
All green, the whole quietly drifting

It has happened before, the shape of the loss is familiar

Quant funds · August 2007

Diversified per book, correlated in aggregate

Crowded, similar positions deleveraged at once. No single position broke a limit. The aggregate did.

Systematic managers · 2025–26

No mandate breached, multi-sigma losses in days

Reported ~1.8% over four days while indices set records, on crowding into correlated AI-linked names. Reported figures, a structural parallel.

These are structural parallels, the documented shape of the loss, not proof of AI causation. Each shows what an aggregate failure looks like when every individual decision is, on its own, within the rules.

Not all movement is drift

Some aggregate movement is dangerous drift; some is legitimate, in-appetite novelty a healthy business is supposed to do. The service’s job is to separate the two, gating drift out of appetite while routing safe-but-novel states to human review. Routing legitimate novelty to review is explicitly not a false alarm.

Each dot is a compliant decision. The aggregate is the thing that drifts out of appetite.

The operational facts

What it needs, what you get, how long it takes.

Data required
Decision-stream events (inputs, outputs, metadata) from the selected use case, inside your boundary per the deployment model.
What is measured
Individual conformance to envelope; aggregate position against appetite; trend and concentration.
Who authors the boundary
Your risk function, in your terms, with our authoring support, minimum vocabulary only.
Who sees alerts
Your named reviewers, through your existing escalation channels.
Blocked vs routed
Nothing is blocked in a measurement pilot; novelty and exceptions are routed to your reviewers.
The report
Recurring board-ready summary + exception detail, sample available on request.
Pilot length
Typically 8–12 weeks including baseline.
Integration burden
Event feed from the decision stream; no change to the models under observation.
At the end
You keep the constraint register, ledger, baseline and reports in open formats.

The mechanism, at service level

We track two things over a rolling time window.

This axis gates

Distance from appetite

Drift out of stated appetite withholds the compliance token, no token, no action.

This axis never gates

Distance from the known book

Unfamiliar-but-in-appetite states route to governed human review, not a block.

Nominal
Routed to review
Gated
Gated & escalated

Routing legitimate novelty to review is explicitly not a false alarm.

The five objects

What configuration looks like.

01

Window definition

02

Aggregate-state vector

03

Appetite reference bands

04

Known-book corpus

05

Disposition table

Vertical template packs speed authoring, the insurance pack ships with worked appetite statistics: concentration, correlation-load, buffer-erosion.

Every appetite edit and corpus promotion is a signed, attested, logged change, never a config-file edit.

Evidence

A per-period record your board can check for itself.

Each window's disposition carries a tamper-evident attestation, usable both as pre-deal diligence evidence and post-completion monitoring, CPS 230 evidencing framed exactly as Solutions frames it.

Window disposition
Attested record
Board / regulator verifies independently

Grounding

The windowed lifecycle is the pinpole-proven engine; the statistics are established (per /status). The semantic-divergence signal feeding richer state vectors is validating, and this page flags which vector components depend on it.

The honest boundary

  • It flags and routes; it does not price or underwrite.
  • Set-level detection improves no single-output verdict.
  • Appetite references express your stated appetite, the service holds behaviour to the reference; it does not certify the reference is wise.
  • Software-tier attestation is tamper-evident, not non-bypassable; the hardware-attested tier is the upgrade.

Rules 2, 4 and 5 at this rung; 3 and 7 in full at the hardware tier. The eight rules →

Request the sample drift report.

Request →
Solutions ASC Certified Miss-Rate False-Block Control Institutional Advisory Semantic Enforcement Appliance

US 19/440,660 · USPTO · filed 6 January 2026 · Track One · supported by related continuation families · FTO review clear